黄奇帆：美国打压十年，为何中国制造业反而更强了？

Core Viewpoint - The article argues that the economic pressure exerted by the United States on China over the past decade has failed, as evidenced by China's manufacturing value-added share of the global market increasing from 20% in 2010 to 32% in 2023, creating a tripartite division among developed countries, developing countries, and China [2]. Group 1: Economic Transition - China's external dependence has stabilized at 38% since 2016, despite U.S. pressures, indicating a strategic shift from an external to an internal economic focus, which is seen as a necessary choice for a strong economy [3][4]. - Historically, China's economic openness has evolved through three phases: absolute internal circulation (10% external trade dependence from 1950-1980), external circulation dominance (71% peak from 1980-2010), and the current phase of internal circulation [3]. Group 2: Manufacturing Leadership - In the manufacturing sector, China has transitioned from a follower to a leader, with significant advancements in five key areas: shipbuilding, rail transit, power generation equipment, new energy, and automobiles, with the latter producing 30 million vehicles annually, accounting for one-third of global output [4]. - The semiconductor industry has seen remarkable growth, with China's share of global integrated circuit production rising from 1% in 2017 to 40% in 2024, and exports reaching $150 billion, making it the largest export category for China [4]. Group 3: Future Openings - The future focus of China's openness is shifting from "cautious" to "orderly," with an emphasis on increasing the internationalization of the Renminbi, which currently accounts for only 3%-4% of global international clearing despite China’s GDP being 20% of the world [5]. - A key goal is the integration of domestic and foreign trade, aiming for a unified standard for products by 2035, which will enhance resource allocation flexibility in global markets [5]. Group 4: Regional Development - The "Belt and Road" initiative is facilitating a shift from maritime trade dependence to a coordinated land-sea approach, with plans to construct nine land corridors that could enable 50% of China-Europe trade to be conducted via land ports in the future [6].