碳酸锂：储能故事的空间能讲多大？

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significant growth potential of energy storage demand, particularly in relation to lithium carbonate demand, driven by the increasing installation of renewable energy sources and the need for energy storage solutions to balance supply and demand [5][6]. Group 1: Energy Storage Demand Growth - Since Q3 2025, the price of lithium carbonate futures has rebounded from its annual low, with the current fluctuation center elevated to the level seen in Q1 of this year, where the growth rate of energy storage demand is a key unexpected driver [5][7]. - The cumulative production of energy storage cells from January to November is expected to reach 465.23 GWh, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 52%, indicating that energy storage battery production has maintained high growth rates in recent years [7][10]. - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has surged significantly, reaching 113,500 yuan per ton as of November 3, up 129% from the lowest point in July, further highlighting the robust growth in energy storage [10]. Group 2: Future Growth Space for Energy Storage - The article discusses the basic concept of energy storage, which is essential for stabilizing the power system due to the intermittent nature of renewable energy sources like wind and solar [14][20]. - By 2024, the global installed capacity of energy storage projects is expected to reach 372.0 GW, a year-on-year increase of 28.6%, with lithium-ion batteries continuing to dominate the market [24]. - The article predicts that from 2026 to 2030, the annual new installation of lithium-ion energy storage could see an average growth rate of 52% to 118%, depending on various factors [51][52]. Group 3: Lithium Demand from Energy Storage - The demand for lithium carbonate from energy storage is projected to reach significant levels, but it may not surpass the demand from the electric vehicle sector until 2028 [52][54]. - The article suggests that the growth of lithium-ion storage is not uniform and may exceed theoretical estimates due to policy support and economic viability, indicating a potential for substantial increases in lithium demand [54][55]. - The total capacity of domestic energy storage batteries may face short-term challenges in meeting installation demands, necessitating close monitoring of production expansion rates [54].