李迅雷专栏 | 把握“十五五”结构性机会，四大配置主线浮现

Global Landscape - The strategic interaction and policy choices between China and the US significantly impact global trade, industrial chain layout, and capital flows [4] - China is estimated to account for over 40% of global manufacturing capacity, reinforcing its influence in trade and industry [4] - The debt-driven growth model poses challenges but also reflects China's substantial policy resources and market development potential [4] Chinese Economy - The current economic situation is characterized as "high at the front and low at the back," with a GDP growth rate of 5.2% in the first three quarters, making the annual target achievable [6] - Consumption grew by 4.5%, supported by policies like "old-for-new" exchanges, while investment saw a decline of 0.5% [6] - Exports were a highlight, increasing by 6.1%, particularly strong in emerging markets like Africa and ASEAN [6] "14th Five-Year" Plan Highlights - The plan emphasizes accelerating "technological self-reliance," aiming to build a modern industrial system with advanced manufacturing as its backbone [8] - There is a strong push for consumption and increased social welfare spending, particularly in response to an aging population [8] - The establishment of a nationwide unified market is prioritized, optimizing resource allocation in energy, public services, and data [8] Asset Allocation Strategies - In a low-interest-rate environment, high-dividend assets are highlighted as scarce and valuable, with Hong Kong stocks offering a dividend rate 30% higher than A-shares [11] - Sectors like military, gold, and rare earths are recommended as strategic allocations in response to global geopolitical tensions [11] - Focus on AI technology sectors, including computing power and robotics, is essential as they represent a significant investment opportunity [11] - New consumption trends driven by younger demographics and single-person economies present emerging investment opportunities [11]