内存上行周期“远未结束”！大摩：投资者应持有内存股而非“择时”，警惕“成本急剧上升”的消费电子和PC

Core Viewpoint - The AI-driven memory supercycle is expected to be stronger and more persistent than market expectations, with a shift in demand from price-sensitive traditional customers to AI data centers that are less sensitive to pricing [1][4][6]. Memory Industry Dynamics - The current memory supercycle is structural and its intensity and duration will surpass historical experiences, driven by AI data centers and cloud service providers [3][4]. - The demand for memory is now primarily fueled by inference workloads related to AI applications, marking a significant shift from previous cycles dominated by PCs and smartphones [6][7]. Pricing Trends - Recent channel pricing indicates unprecedented strength, with server DRAM prices soaring nearly 70% for Q4 2025, and DDR5 spot prices increasing by 336% since September [10][11]. - NAND prices are also under pressure, with expectations of a 65-70% increase in Q4 due to supply constraints [12]. Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to "hold" rather than attempt to time the market, as the memory cycle is characterized by volatility and rebounds, making it difficult to predict market movements accurately [14][15]. - The report emphasizes that the time spent in the market is more crucial than trying to time it, as ongoing skepticism can fuel further price increases [15]. Winners and Losers - Memory manufacturers like SK Hynix and Samsung are positioned as winners due to their pricing power, which will lead to significant profit growth [16]. - Conversely, the PC and consumer electronics sectors are likely to face severe profit squeezes due to rising memory costs, with companies struggling to pass these costs onto consumers [18][19].