磷酸铁锂“火力全开”

Core Insights - The lithium iron phosphate (LFP) industry chain has entered a high operating phase since the second half of 2025, driven by concentrated demand for energy storage [2][3] - The overall operating rate of the LFP material industry increased from approximately 50% in mid-2025 to over 80% by November, with some leading production lines reaching 100% or even 110% capacity [3] - The demand for energy storage batteries, particularly from AI data centers and commercial storage projects, has significantly boosted the shipment volume of LFP, leading to an expected industry shipment volume of around 2.5 million tons in 2024 and over 4 million tons in 2025 [3] Industry Capacity and Cost Dynamics - By the end of 2025, the LFP industry capacity is projected to reach 5.3 to 5.5 million tons, with an effective capacity of about 4 million tons, indicating that around 20% of the capacity is outdated [3] - The cost disparity between old and new production lines is significant, with older lines consuming about 4,500 kWh/ton compared to new lines that can reduce consumption to below 3,000 kWh/ton [4] - The comprehensive cost difference exceeds 2,000 RMB/ton, and new capacities need to reduce costs by an additional 10% to 20% to remain competitive [5] Raw Material Price Impact - Since August 2025, the prices of key raw materials such as phosphoric acid and ferrous sulfate have risen, contributing to increased production costs for LFP [6] - The production cost of LFP has increased from approximately 9,000 RMB/ton to 10,000 RMB/ton, although companies with resource advantages can maintain costs in the range of 8,000 to 9,000 RMB/ton [7] Price Trends and Market Response - The price of LFP has risen from 9,000-9,300 RMB/ton to about 10,500 RMB/ton, with high-quality products reaching up to 11,000 RMB/ton [8] - Despite price increases, many production segments are still operating at a loss, with only a few companies nearing breakeven due to effective cost control [9] - If raw material prices remain high, LFP prices may further increase to 11,000-12,000 RMB/ton in 2026, with leading companies potentially achieving profits of 500-1,500 RMB/ton [10] Future Outlook - The rapid growth in energy storage demand is driving the LFP industry into a new supply-demand adjustment cycle, with short-term price support from costs and a mid-term increase in industry differentiation due to new capacity and the elimination of inefficient production lines [13] - Companies with resource integration capabilities and cost advantages are expected to achieve stable profitability sooner, while high-energy-consuming and outdated capacities may be accelerated out of the market during the next cycle [14]