住房投机与创业：隐藏在房地产繁荣背后的经济解释｜论文故事汇

Core Viewpoint - The article presents a new perspective on the relationship between housing speculation and entrepreneurship, suggesting that excessive real estate prosperity may increase the opportunity cost of entrepreneurship, thereby suppressing entrepreneurial activities while simultaneously filtering for higher-quality entrepreneurial projects [3][4]. Group 1: Impact of Housing Prices - Over the past two decades, the surge in housing prices has reshaped the wealth structure of residents and significantly influenced corporate investment, local finances, and national macroeconomic regulation [3][4]. - Traditional views in economics emphasize the "mortgage effect," where rising housing prices enhance household net worth, easing financing constraints and encouraging entrepreneurship [4][5]. Group 2: Speculation Mechanism - The authors argue that when housing price increases are primarily driven by speculative demand rather than genuine residential needs, housing transforms into a high-return, low-volatility speculative product [4][5]. - This shift leads individuals to prefer investing in real estate over high-risk, long-term, and uncertain entrepreneurial activities, distorting the incentives for entrepreneurship [5][6]. Group 3: Model and Findings - A model based on occupational choices was established, indicating that as housing market prosperity continues and speculative returns rise, individuals are more likely to choose speculation over entrepreneurship, resulting in a decline in entrepreneurial rates [5][6]. - The model also suggests that high speculative returns first displace lower-return entrepreneurs, while higher-quality entrepreneurial projects remain, thus increasing the average quality of entrepreneurship [5][6]. Group 4: Empirical Evidence - The paper employs a causal identification strategy using China's housing purchase restrictions implemented in various cities since 2010, which inadvertently created a "non-expected speculative influx" in surrounding areas [6][7]. - This approach allows for the isolation of the pure impact of housing price changes on entrepreneurship by comparing entrepreneurial rates in restricted and non-restricted cities [6][7]. Group 5: Data Sources - The research utilizes two primary databases: the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) covering 122 cities for individual entrepreneurial behavior, and the National Market Supervision Administration's business registration database from 1994 to 2020 for analyzing entrepreneurial quality [7]. - The combination of these datasets enables the study to capture changes in both the quantity and quality of entrepreneurship effectively [7].