Goldman Sachs(US:GS) 第一财经·2025-11-12 12:08Core Insights - Goldman Sachs recently released a research report on the humanoid robot industry, indicating that early capacity planning in this sector is reasonable and does not imply an imminent risk of oversupply [2] - The report predicts that global humanoid robot shipments will reach 1.38 million units by 2035, with an optimistic scenario projecting shipments of 11.57 million units, reflecting the early stage of industry development and various future possibilities [2] Group 1: Industry Outlook - Most supply chain companies in the humanoid robot sector are optimistic about future prospects and are actively planning production capacity both domestically and internationally [2][3] - Current capacity planning among Chinese supply chain companies corresponds to an annual production volume of approximately 100,000 to 1 million robots, with many companies intending to scale up after receiving actual orders [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The humanoid robot industry currently lacks substantial orders, primarily due to the absence of a significant order volume that can support a robust supply chain [3] - A minimum order volume of over 10,000 units is necessary to establish a viable supply chain system, as smaller orders cannot sustain industry growth [3] Group 3: Application and Demand - Demand for humanoid robots is emerging from technology companies, universities, and government procurement, with potential applications in large model training, factory use, and exhibition performances expected to see growth in the next one to two years [4] - The current application scenarios for humanoid robots are limited, but there is a consensus on the need for differentiated products and technological capabilities to attract investment, especially from overseas [4] Group 4: Market Performance - The humanoid robot sector has experienced a significant rise in the capital market this year, with strong performance in the A-share market reflecting future industry development expectations [4] - According to Gartner, by 2028, 80% of warehouses will utilize robotic technology, and by 2030, 30% of factory workers will interact with humanoid robots in real work environments, a significant increase from the current rate of less than 5% [5]