关注央行的两个指引——2025年三季度货币政策执行报告学习心得

Core Viewpoints - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) indicates that a slight decline in loan growth is reasonable, reflecting changes in the financial supply side structure, with M2 growth potentially peaking at 8.8% in August and expected to decline to 8.0% in the fourth quarter [3][6][12] - The probability of short-term reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts or interest rate reductions remains low, as the current financial dilemma is attributed to a lack of borrowers rather than lenders, suggesting that any released funds may not effectively stimulate the real economy [3][8][18] Summary by Sections Monetary Aggregate Guidance - The PBOC notes that with the rapid development of financial markets, the structure of social financing has changed significantly, leading to a natural decline in total financial growth rates [5][11] - Loan growth has shifted towards supply-side financing rather than demand-side, which may help improve supply-demand balance despite impacting M2 growth [5][11] - M2 growth has increased from 7.3% in December 2024 to 8.4% in September 2025, but is expected to decline to 8.0% in the fourth quarter [6][12] Monetary Policy Guidance - The PBOC emphasizes the need for an appropriately loose monetary policy, which is characterized by ample liquidity and the use of various tools to maintain relatively loose financing conditions [7][16] - The increase in excess reserves does not necessarily lead to improved total liquidity, as the effectiveness of monetary creation is influenced by the demand for financing in the real economy [17] - The absence of the phrase "preventing fund circulation" in the latest report suggests a more favorable view of the short-term bond market [17][18]