虎嗅APP·2025-11-12 13:33Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent turmoil in the photovoltaic (PV) industry due to rumors about the failure of anti-involution policies, which led to significant stock declines. However, the industry association's clarification has stabilized the market, highlighting the determination to combat unhealthy competition and restore value in the sector [3][4][17]. Group 1: Industry Context - The term "involution" has become synonymous with the PV industry in 2023, characterized by homogenized expansion, price wars, and inefficient competition amid slowing installation demand [7]. - The capital market's reaction is evident, with the PV ETF experiencing a dramatic decline of 68.39%, reflecting the industry's struggles and the negative sentiment surrounding it [8]. - The anti-involution initiative began planning in May 2024, officially launching in October 2024, with policies aimed at curbing unhealthy competition and restoring market balance [9][10]. Group 2: Policy Measures - Current policies focus on "price protection" and "volume control," aiming to eliminate below-cost sales and facilitate the exit of outdated production capacities [10]. - Initial results of the price protection measures show significant price increases in key materials: silicon materials up 33.33%, silicon wafers up 17.39%, batteries up 8.92%, and modules up 2.45% [11]. - The silicon material segment is crucial for reversing the industry's overcapacity, as it has the least production elasticity and is capital-intensive, making it difficult to restart production once halted [12][13]. Group 3: Market Recovery - The anti-involution actions have led to expectations of rapid capacity reduction in the silicon material sector, which is essential for improving the overall PV industry landscape [17]. - The establishment of a joint storage platform for silicon material by multiple companies is anticipated to facilitate the exit of smaller players and further stabilize the market [16]. Group 4: Asset Revaluation - The article posits that the anti-involution policies will drive a revaluation of PV assets, transitioning the industry from scale expansion to quality competition [20]. - Companies like Tongwei, TCL Zhonghuan, and Longi Green Energy are showing signs of recovery, with some reporting improved quarterly performance despite still being in the red [22]. - The focus on technological advancements, such as perovskite solar cells, is seen as a pathway for companies to differentiate themselves and enhance their market value [24][25].