大摩：AI热潮背后的隐忧，到2028年，美国电力缺口或相当于44座核电站

Core Insights - The report from Morgan Stanley highlights a significant increase in electricity demand for data centers in the U.S. driven by the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure, predicting a power shortfall of up to 44 gigawatts (GW) by 2028, equivalent to the output of 44 nuclear power plants [1][3][5] Electricity Demand and Supply - By 2028, total electricity demand from U.S. data centers is expected to reach approximately 69 GW, with 10 GW from data centers under construction and 15 GW accessible through the existing grid, leaving a shortfall of about 44 GW [3][6] - This forecast has been revised upward from a previous estimate of a 36 GW shortfall made in December of the previous year [5] Solutions to Power Shortage - The U.S. Department of Energy is preparing to provide hundreds of billions in financing for nuclear projects to alleviate potential power supply pressures [7] - Morgan Stanley emphasizes that without immediate enhancements to power supply through natural gas turbines, fuel cells, or retrofitting existing facilities, the U.S. may struggle to support the rapid growth of AI infrastructure [7] "Time to Power" Solutions - Morgan Stanley proposes several "Time to Power" solutions to address the electricity shortfall, which could reduce the gap to approximately 20% (13 GW) if fully implemented [8] - The report lists potential solutions, including: - Natural gas turbines (15-20 GW potential) - Bloom Energy fuel cells (5-8 GW potential) - Direct power transactions from existing nuclear plants (5-15 GW potential) - Conversion of existing Bitcoin mining sites (10-15 GW potential) [10][13] Bitcoin Mining Site Transformation - The report highlights the trend of transforming Bitcoin mining sites into high-performance computing (HPC) data centers, with two primary business models emerging: - "New Neocloud" model, where mining companies build data centers and lease computing power to large cloud service providers [14] - "REIT Endgame" model, where mining companies construct infrastructure and sign long-term leases with cloud computing firms [14][15] Valuation Insights - The report provides valuation references for Bitcoin mining sites transitioning to data centers, indicating that larger sites with stable grid access and over 100 MW capacity have varying enterprise value per watt (EV/W) multiples, with lower multiples indicating more attractive conversion opportunities [18]