中金 | 深度布局“十五五”：宏观篇

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of the "15th Five-Year Plan" in enhancing technological innovation, optimizing internal economic structure, and promoting domestic demand while maintaining a confident approach to external openness [2][3][4]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Context - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is positioned as a critical phase for China's economic development, focusing on higher requirements for technological innovation and the importance of industrialization and scale [2]. - The development environment has changed significantly compared to the "14th Five-Year Plan," with breakthroughs in technological innovation, a downward financial cycle, and a more complex geopolitical landscape [3]. Group 2: Supply-Side Enhancements - The emphasis on building a modern industrial system is crucial, with a focus on enhancing supply capabilities and increasing the demand for technological innovation [4][5]. - The plan outlines specific directions for traditional industries, including strengthening their global competitiveness, while also highlighting strategic emerging industries such as new energy and quantum technology [5][6]. Group 3: Innovation and Technology - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims to enhance independent innovation capabilities across core technologies, industries, talent, and the digital economy [6]. - Key areas for technological breakthroughs include integrated circuits, advanced materials, and biomanufacturing, with a focus on full-chain support for innovation [6][7]. Group 4: Demand-Side Strategies - The plan recognizes the need to boost domestic demand, with a target to increase the consumer spending rate significantly [9][10]. - Strategies to enhance consumption include improving institutional mechanisms, increasing quality supply, and removing unreasonable restrictions on consumption [10][11][12]. Group 5: Social Welfare and Employment - The plan emphasizes the importance of improving social welfare and employment to support consumer spending, with a focus on high-quality employment and equitable income distribution [12][13]. - Policies aimed at enhancing social security and reducing the financial burden on households are highlighted as essential for stimulating demand [13][14]. Group 6: External Openness - The "15th Five-Year Plan" promotes a more proactive and autonomous approach to external openness, emphasizing the importance of balancing imports and exports [15][16]. - Financial openness is identified as a key area for enhancing China's global financial standing, with a focus on increasing the internationalization of the RMB [17][18].