中金 | 深度布局“十五五”：军工篇

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the high-quality advancement of national defense and military modernization, highlighting the strategic importance of aerospace technology in achieving these goals [2][3]. Group 1: National Defense and Military Modernization - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has led to significant progress in national defense and military construction, with core equipment seeing rapid iteration and mass production, resulting in revenue growth for key companies such as AVIC and COMAC, projected to increase by 67%, 57%, and 51% respectively by 2024 compared to 2020 [2]. - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims to achieve the centenary military goals and high-quality modernization of national defense, with expectations for steady progress in core equipment iteration and production [2][3]. Group 2: Global Security and Defense Spending - Global military spending is projected to increase by 9.4% in 2024, reaching approximately $2.72 trillion, marking the largest single-year increase since the Cold War [2][7]. - China's share of the global market for special equipment is expected to gradually increase, enhancing industry growth potential and profitability, as current market share is only 5.9% compared to the U.S. at 43% [2][3]. Group 3: Integration of New Domains and Technologies - The defense system is transitioning towards a fusion of mechanization, informatization, and intelligentization, with significant demand expected to be released in new domains and qualities [7][8]. - The article highlights the importance of unmanned systems and AI in modern defense, with expectations for rapid growth in these areas during the "15th Five-Year Plan" [8][10]. Group 4: Aerospace Industry Development - The achievements in aerospace during the "14th Five-Year Plan" have set the stage for continued growth in the aerospace sector, with significant milestones such as the completion of the Chinese space station and the Chang'e 6 mission [11]. - The commercial aerospace sector is gaining momentum, with policies increasingly supporting its development, positioning it as a strategic emerging industry [11][12]. Group 5: Navigation and Remote Sensing Applications - The Beidou navigation system is expected to deepen its integration with various industries, with the total output value of the satellite navigation and positioning service industry projected to reach 575.8 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7.39% [14][21]. - The number of remote sensing satellites in orbit has surpassed 400, with ongoing developments in commercial remote sensing constellations, indicating a robust growth trajectory for the remote sensing application industry [14][21].