中金 | 深度布局“十五五”：科技硬件篇

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of domestic substitution in the semiconductor industry, particularly in the context of AI technology and the "14th Five-Year Plan" and "15th Five-Year Plan" for China's technological self-reliance and innovation [2][4][12]. Semiconductor Industry - The "14th Five-Year Plan" sets higher requirements for technological self-reliance, with a focus on AI chips as essential infrastructure for generative AI development [2]. - Domestic companies are increasingly achieving performance parity with overseas products in cloud AI chips, indicating a promising growth trajectory for the domestic cloud AI chip industry [2]. - In the edge AI chip sector, Chinese firms have reached global leadership in certain low-power scenarios, suggesting rapid deployment opportunities [2]. - The domestic semiconductor industry is witnessing a shift towards local production due to geopolitical changes and supply chain restructuring, with an expected increase in advanced process capacity during the "15th Five-Year Plan" [4][6]. - The demand for advanced packaging will rise alongside the production of advanced process chips, necessitating upgrades in packaging technology to meet performance requirements [5][6]. Consumer Electronics - China has become a global manufacturing hub for consumer electronics, with smartphone exports projected to reach 814 million units in 2024, accounting for 66% of global shipments [8]. - The consumer electronics sector is experiencing a dual trend of geopolitical uncertainty and rapid AI development, with AI-enabled products expected to drive growth by 2026 [8][9]. - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims to promote the digital transformation of manufacturing, emphasizing the integration of AI in operations and production processes [8][9]. ICT Equipment - China has established a leading position in digital infrastructure, with over 4.5 million 5G base stations and significant growth in computing power centers [11][12]. - The digital economy is projected to contribute 10.4% to GDP by 2024, reflecting a shift towards a more technology-driven economic model [11][12]. - The "15th Five-Year Plan" will focus on advancing digital technologies, including AI, to enhance productivity and economic growth [12][13]. Future Outlook - The semiconductor industry is expected to benefit from increased domestic production capabilities and technological advancements, particularly in logic and storage chips [6][7]. - The EDA (Electronic Design Automation) market in China is gradually improving, with domestic companies gaining market share despite historically low localization rates [7]. - The upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" will prioritize the development of AI infrastructure and the integration of AI across various sectors, positioning it as a key driver of future economic growth [16].