中金 | 深度布局“十五五”：机械篇

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the critical role of advanced manufacturing in building a modern industrial system, highlighting the need for high-quality development and technological innovation in the manufacturing sector [2][4]. Manufacturing Industry Overview - The manufacturing sector's production value reached 25.5 trillion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, accounting for 25% of GDP, indicating steady growth [2]. - The manufacturing PMI index decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 49.0% in October, with high-tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, and consumer goods sectors remaining in the expansion zone [2]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a year-on-year decline of 2.3% in September, with a narrowing decline compared to the previous month, suggesting improved supply-demand dynamics [2]. Technological Advancements - The article discusses the importance of accelerating technological self-reliance, particularly in AI, nuclear fusion, and new energy sectors, which are expected to transform production and manufacturing models [6]. - High-tech manufacturing is anticipated to continue driving the development of the manufacturing industry [2]. Robotics Sector - The humanoid robot sector is expected to see significant growth from 2026 to 2030, with opportunities in hardware participation and new technologies [7]. - Collaborative robots are projected to grow rapidly, with a year-on-year sales increase of 47% in the first half of 2025, indicating strong demand for human-machine collaboration [7]. Lithium Battery Equipment - China has a competitive advantage in the global lithium battery equipment market, with a complete supply chain and ongoing technological breakthroughs [8]. - The capital expenditure growth for leading domestic lithium battery companies is expected to accelerate in 2025-2026, driven by increasing demand in both domestic and international markets [8]. Solid-State Battery Development - Solid-state batteries are identified as a core technology for next-generation power batteries, with significant advantages in energy density and safety [9]. - The Chinese government is investing 6 billion yuan in solid-state battery R&D projects, indicating strong policy support for this technology [9]. Hydrogen Energy Equipment - Hydrogen energy is recognized as a strategic component for national energy security, but the industry faces challenges in cost and technology [10]. - The article suggests focusing on domestic production of key hydrogen energy components to overcome current bottlenecks [11]. Nuclear Fusion - Nuclear fusion is positioned as a future core industry, with significant investments and projects underway to advance its commercialization [12]. - The construction of major projects like CFETR and BEST is expected to create investment opportunities across the supply chain [12]. Quantum Technology - The quantum computing sector is rapidly advancing, with significant growth expected in the global market, driven by breakthroughs in hardware [13]. - The article highlights the potential for core equipment manufacturers to benefit from the commercialization of quantum technology [13]. Internationalization and Export Growth - China's manufacturing exports grew by 7.1% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, with a shift towards high-value-added products [14]. - The export volume of excavators increased significantly, reflecting the competitiveness of traditional industries in the global market [14][15].