中金 | 深度布局“十五五”：环保公用篇

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transition from scale expansion to value enhancement in the power sector during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, emphasizing the importance of high-quality development and the establishment of a diversified pricing system for electricity [1][8]. Group 1: New Energy Development - The new energy installed capacity is expected to reach 1.444 billion kilowatts by the end of 2024, achieving 76% of the total new installed capacity in the country during the "14th Five-Year Plan" [2][9]. - The profitability of different power sources varies significantly, with coal power being sensitive to coal prices, while new energy sources are transitioning to a subsidy-free era, leading to overall declining profitability [2][8]. - The article highlights the need for addressing the consumption issues of new energy, with a focus on improving the electricity pricing system as a key policy tool [10][15]. Group 2: Power Market Reform - The power market reform is advancing, enhancing the commodity attributes of electricity, which will better reflect supply and demand dynamics across different regions and time periods [9][10]. - The introduction of capacity pricing mechanisms is expected to stabilize the profitability of thermal power plants, which are transitioning to peak-shaving roles [10][14]. - The development of new energy storage systems is crucial, with a target of reaching 180 million kilowatts of new storage capacity by 2027 [11][21]. Group 3: Wind Power Industry - The wind power sector is projected to maintain steady growth, with a target of adding no less than 12 million kilowatts of new capacity during the "15th Five-Year Plan" [26][29]. - The profitability of the wind power industry is expected to improve as the price of wind turbines rises, reversing the previous downward trend [27][28]. - The article notes that the offshore wind power market is poised for significant growth, with many projects nearing the start of construction [29][30]. Group 4: Solar Power Industry - The solar power industry is anticipated to face short-term challenges due to supply-demand mismatches, but is expected to recover as consumption capacity improves [16][22]. - The article emphasizes the importance of integrating solar power with energy storage solutions to enhance the stability and reliability of power supply [20][22]. - The solar industry is also expected to benefit from international demand, particularly in regions like Europe and Australia, where storage needs are rising [20][21].