多地密集部署，护航四季度经济稳增长：申万期货早间评论-20251113

Economic Outlook - Multiple regions are intensively deploying economic measures for the fourth quarter to achieve annual targets, focusing on boosting consumption and accelerating major project investments [1] - Experts indicate that these measures are more targeted and coordinated, which is expected to support steady economic growth in the fourth quarter and lay a solid foundation for a smooth start in the next year [1] Commodity Market Insights Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have strengthened recently, driven by the potential end of the U.S. government shutdown, alleviating liquidity risk concerns [2] - The U.S. job market remains weak, with October ADP employment numbers increasing by 42,000, significantly above the expected 30,000, while previous month data was revised to a decrease of 29,000 [2] - Central banks globally are increasing gold reserves, enhancing gold's status as a safe-haven asset amid rising distrust in the financial system [2][17] Oil Market - The SC night market saw a decline of 3.39% in oil prices, with Saudi Arabia significantly lowering its official selling price for December to Asian buyers due to increased supply from OPEC+ producers [3][11] - Russian oil exports are expected to decrease due to external impacts on export terminals, but recent attacks on infrastructure may lead to increased exports [3][11] Shipping Index - The European Container Index (EC) has declined, with Maersk's new shipping schedule indicating a reduction in container prices, which is below market expectations for the peak season [3][24] Financial Market Overview Stock Indices - U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with a market turnover of 1.96 trillion yuan, and financing balances increasing by 7.628 billion yuan [10] - The domestic liquidity environment is expected to remain loose, with potential inflows from external funds due to the Fed's interest rate cuts and the appreciation of the yuan [10] Bonds - The 10-year government bond yield has decreased to 1.802%, supported by a net injection of 130 billion yuan by the central bank [10] - The upcoming end of the U.S. government shutdown is projected to reduce fourth-quarter economic growth by 2 percentage points [10][5] Agricultural Products - The soybean meal market is expected to remain weak due to the absence of USDA supply and demand reports, with expectations of a downward adjustment in U.S. soybean yield [20] - The cotton market is experiencing downward pressure as the Xinjiang cotton harvest nears completion, with supply pressures expected to persist [23]