研报 | 存储器产业2026年资本支出仍显保守，对位元产出成长助力有限

Core Insights - The article discusses the increasing average selling prices (ASP) of memory products, leading to higher profits for suppliers, and a shift in capital expenditure focus towards technology upgrades and high-value products in the DRAM and NAND Flash industries [2][4]. DRAM Industry - Capital expenditure for the DRAM industry is projected to reach $53.7 billion in 2025 and grow to $61.3 billion in 2026, representing a 14% year-over-year increase [4]. - Micron is identified as the most aggressive player, with a projected capital expenditure of $13.5 billion in 2026, a 23% increase, focusing on 1 gamma process penetration and TSV equipment [5]. - SK Hynix is expected to invest $20.5 billion in 2026, a 17% increase, to expand HBM4 capacity [5]. - Samsung plans to invest $20 billion, an 11% increase, for HBM 1C process penetration and slight increases in P4L wafer capacity [5]. - There is a limited capacity expansion opportunity for Micron until its new facility in the U.S. is completed, expected to contribute to output only by 2027 [5]. NAND Flash Industry - Kioxia/SanDisk is noted as the most proactive in expanding capacity, with a projected investment of $4.5 billion in 2026, a 41% increase, to accelerate BiCS8 production and invest in BiCS9 R&D [6]. - Micron aims for a slight increase in NAND Flash capacity with a projected capital expenditure increase of 63% in 2026, focusing on G9 processes and Enterprise SSDs [6]. - Samsung and SK Hynix/Solidigm are expected to reduce or limit NAND Flash capital expenditures, prioritizing investments in HBM and DRAM [6]. - The demand surge in the NAND Flash market is driven by the rapid increase in storage capacity needs due to AI and a shortage of HDDs, leading to a structural shortage rather than a temporary market fluctuation [6][7]. Market Outlook - The article indicates that the capital expenditure focus in 2026 will shift towards process upgrades and hybrid-bonding rather than capacity expansion, resulting in limited output growth [7]. - The NAND Flash market is expected to continue experiencing supply shortages throughout 2026 [7].