光伏周价格 | 供需失衡持续演变，光伏产业链各环节均面临挑战

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the photovoltaic industry, highlighting the weak demand and high inventory levels across various segments, including polysilicon, wafers, cells, and modules, leading to price pressures and a potential shift to a "weak stability" phase for polysilicon prices [4][6][8][12]. Polysilicon - Current polysilicon inventory has reached approximately 430,000 tons and continues to accumulate [4]. - The overall output in the industry has decreased, with an expected production of about 125,000 tons in November, a reduction of 11,000 tons month-on-month [5]. - Despite an increase in the number of orders, the actual demand for polysilicon is shrinking due to planned production cuts by downstream wafer manufacturers [6]. - The actual transaction prices for polysilicon have shown signs of decline, but a significant drop is not expected in the short term due to policy support [7]. Wafers - The current wafer inventory remains high at over 23 GW, with some manufacturers beginning to reduce production due to high inventory pressure [8]. - The market continues to exhibit an oversupply situation, with supply still exceeding demand despite some production cuts from smaller manufacturers [9]. - The actual demand remains weak, making it difficult to digest existing inventory and current production levels [10]. - Wafer prices are under significant downward pressure, with prices for 183N and 210RN wafers nearing 1.25 RMB and 1.6 RMB respectively [11]. Cells - The inventory in the cell segment has accumulated to over 7 days, indicating a significant increase in stock and slow turnover [12]. - The supply side is expected to adjust due to high inventory and shrinking demand, with a substantial reduction in production anticipated [13]. - The pressure from downstream module orders has increased, leading to a lack of confidence in the market [13]. - Current cell prices are under pressure, with mainstream prices for 183N at 0.3 RMB/W and 210RN at 0.28 RMB/W, with some traders resorting to low-price dumping [15]. Modules - The module market is facing challenges from both domestic and international demand shrinkage, exacerbated by the seasonal transition to winter [16]. - There is a divergence in supply, with major manufacturers maintaining stable production while smaller producers are reportedly halting operations [16]. - The strong desire among module manufacturers to increase year-end sales has led to price reductions, with conventional module prices dropping to around 0.65 RMB/W [16]. - The decline in costs for upstream materials like cells and glass, combined with weak terminal demand, is putting additional downward pressure on module prices [16].