招商银行研究·2025-11-13 09:12Core Viewpoint - The central theme of the report emphasizes the evolution of the central bank's monetary policy framework, highlighting the shift towards "diminishing quantity targets, strengthening interest rate comparisons, and optimizing structural tools" [1] Group 1: Economic Situation Assessment - The report indicates that the domestic economic recovery requires further consolidation, with a need to promote a smooth transition between old and new growth drivers and to transform the economic development model [2] - It acknowledges the complex international situation and the insufficient growth momentum in the global economy, while asserting that the long-term supportive conditions for China's economy remain unchanged [2] - The report shifts its focus on inflation from assessment to description, noting improvements in price movements and suggesting policies to positively influence reasonable price recovery [2] Group 2: Policy Stance - The monetary policy maintains a "moderately loose" tone, focusing on achieving a "fourfold balance" [3] - The report highlights the need for supportive monetary policy to stabilize growth and inflation, especially in light of the Federal Reserve's rate cuts and slowing domestic economic growth [3] - It notes that the non-performing loan ratio and net interest margin of commercial banks have not significantly improved, indicating that the loosening of monetary policy should remain moderate [3] Group 3: Policy Framework Evolution - The report details the evolution of the monetary policy framework, emphasizing the need for liquidity to remain ample and interest rates to be reasonably priced [4] - It states that the focus will shift from "financing and monetary aggregates" to "financial totals," indicating a reduced emphasis on quantity targets, particularly credit growth [5] - The report mentions that the growth rate of RMB loans has dropped to 6.6% in October, a decline of 4.1 percentage points compared to the average growth rate over the past five years [5] Group 4: Price Control Mechanisms - The report stresses the importance of price-based regulation in response to the anticipated decline in financial total growth and increased volatility [8] - It outlines five key interest rate relationships that need to be rationalized, including the relationship between central bank policy rates and market rates, and the relationship between different types of asset yields [8] - The report emphasizes the need for continuous evaluation of financial institutions' interest rate policies and self-regulatory agreements [8] Group 5: Structural Adjustments - The report calls for continued support for key financial initiatives and emphasizes the importance of enhancing data development and utilization in the fintech sector [9] - It reviews the achievements in financial support for the digital economy during the 14th Five-Year Plan period and outlines plans for the 15th Five-Year Plan, focusing on the integration of digital technology and data elements [9]