国泰海通 · 晨报1114｜宏观、汽车、投资银行业与经纪业

Macroeconomic Overview - The current economic backdrop for Japan under Prime Minister Kishi is characterized by moderate recovery amidst ongoing re-inflation, contrasting with the deflationary stagnation faced by former Prime Minister Abe [3] - Kishi's economic strategy emphasizes demand-side management to combat external inflation while also pursuing structural supply-side reforms to stimulate new growth sectors [3] Fiscal Policy - Kishi plans to implement an "expansionary but responsible fiscal policy," with expectations of an increase in Japan's fiscal deficit ratio by 2026, although the overall expansion may be limited due to debt risks [3] Monetary Policy - Despite a dovish stance, the Bank of Japan is expected to continue raising interest rates in 2026, with a potential increase of 30 to 50 basis points, while also slowing the pace of balance sheet reduction [3] Industrial Policy - Kishi aims to enhance strategic investments in 17 key industries over the next five years, focusing on sectors such as AI, semiconductors, shipbuilding, quantum technology, biotechnology, aerospace, and cybersecurity [3] Market Impact - The "Kishi trade" observed in October indicates a strengthening of Japanese stocks, while the yen and Japanese bonds weaken, with expectations of a bullish stock market and continued upward pressure on bond yields [4] - The yen is projected to remain under pressure in the short term, with a potential for slight appreciation if U.S. dollar credit declines [4] Automotive Industry - The wholesale prices of passenger vehicles have stabilized in October, with an average discount rate of 18.5%, reflecting a shift from price competition to refined operations in the domestic market [7] - Traditional fuel vehicles maintain a high average discount rate of 26.3%, while new energy vehicles show a more stable discount rate of 12.8%, indicating a dual advantage in cost control and market demand for new energy products [7][8] Investment Fund Trends - As of October 2025, the total net asset value of public funds in China is 36.02 trillion yuan, with a net outflow observed in stock and bond funds, while money market funds saw an increase [12] - Individual investors' risk appetite has been affected by market volatility, leading to a decline in shares of ordinary stock and mixed funds, while QDII and FOF funds have gained traction as safe-haven investments [13] - Mixed FOF products have performed well, with a 63.10% increase in new issuance, as they provide a balance of risk and return for retail investors [14]