黄金反弹凶猛！花旗喊出2027年底6000美元，但2026年3650美元

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for gold prices to reach $6,000 per ounce under specific scenarios, driven by a significant global wealth reallocation, while also presenting a more cautious baseline scenario predicting a decline in gold prices by 2026 [3][7][11]. Group 1: Price Predictions - Citi's report predicts a 30% probability of gold prices reaching $6,000 per ounce by the end of 2027, contingent on a massive global wealth reallocation [3][7]. - The baseline scenario forecasts gold prices to "grind lower" to $3,650 per ounce by the end of 2026, with a 50% probability assigned to this outcome [4][11]. - A bear scenario is also presented, suggesting a potential drop to $3,000 per ounce if geopolitical and economic concerns ease significantly, with a 20% probability [13]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The report highlights that U.S. investors are the primary drivers of the recent gold price increase, accounting for 60.9% of global gold ETF net inflows in 2025 [4][23]. - The current physical gold market is experiencing a significant supply-demand imbalance, with an estimated annual shortfall exceeding 1,000 tons, necessitating reliance on existing stockholders to meet new demand [26]. - The report notes that gold's current valuation is considered "very expensive," with multiple indicators reaching 50-year highs [16][18]. Group 3: Economic Context - The anticipated economic environment in 2026 is described as a "Goldilocks" scenario, where improved economic conditions may lead to a decline in gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [11][12]. - The report suggests that a key trigger for price movements will be a shift in U.S. growth sentiment and a decrease in real interest rates [12]. Group 4: Investment Demand - The net investment demand for gold is running at an annualized rate exceeding $350 billion, marking a historical high [21]. - The report indicates that the current gold price significantly exceeds marginal production costs, with high-cost miners enjoying profit margins at their highest levels in nearly 50 years [22].