光大证券研究·2025-11-13 23:04Group 1 - The financial data for October shows a year-on-year increase in M1 balance of 6.2%, with new loans amounting to 220 billion and a social financing scale increase of 815 billion, while M2 balance grew by 8.2% [4] - The financial data reflects past conditions, and it is crucial to consider future changes in data. The full utilization of 500 billion new policy financial tools by policy banks is expected to drive project investments exceeding 7 trillion [5][6] - The relationship between surface and underlying data is important. The replacement of local government hidden debts with bonds and the risk management reforms in small financial institutions may slow down credit growth, but these actions are beneficial for economic stability and growth [8] Group 2 - The potential for future increases in new policy financial tools could further stimulate credit, M2, and social financing growth, indicating a more optimistic outlook for financial data [6] - The analysis of financial data should consider both the apparent figures and the underlying logic, particularly the impact of local government debt management and the risk mitigation efforts of small financial institutions [8]