中金 | 深度布局“十五五”：绿色发展篇

Core Viewpoint - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is crucial for achieving carbon peak goals and sets the direction for economic and social development in China, emphasizing the importance of carbon emission control and the transition to a new energy system [2][3]. Group 1: Carbon Emission Control - The transition from energy consumption dual control to carbon emission dual control begins in the "15th Five-Year Plan," focusing on intensity control as a primary measure [3][5]. - The carbon intensity reduction target during the "15th Five-Year Plan" is based on achieving a 65% reduction from 2005 levels by 2030, with coal and oil consumption peaking as key objectives [5][6]. - Predictions indicate that coal consumption will peak around 2028, while oil consumption is expected to peak between 2025 and 2027, with estimates of 7.7 to 8 million tons [6][7][8]. Group 2: New Energy System Development - The "15th Five-Year Plan" prioritizes the construction of a new energy system, aiming for non-fossil energy to account for over 25% of energy consumption by 2030, requiring an annual increase of 1% during this period [6][9]. - The plan outlines three main actions for achieving carbon peak: industrial structure optimization, electrification of economic activities, and cleaner power generation [9][10]. Group 3: Industrial and Economic Transformation - Key industries such as steel, petrochemicals, and building materials, which account for about 50% of carbon emissions, will undergo energy-saving and carbon reduction transformations, targeting a reduction of approximately 4 million tons of CO2 emissions [10][12]. - The electrification of industrial, building, and transportation sectors is projected to contribute to a reduction of 3.5 million tons of carbon emissions by 2030, with significant growth expected in the electric vehicle market [14][15][18]. Group 4: Green Investment and Market Creation - Achieving carbon peak will require an estimated investment of 17.5 trillion yuan, with an average annual investment of 3.5 trillion yuan, expected to boost GDP growth by 1.2% [24][25]. - The green finance sector is anticipated to grow, with a current capacity to support 2.5 trillion yuan annually, necessitating policies to reduce the green premium and enhance investment in low-carbon technologies [25][26]. Group 5: Carbon Market Development - The carbon market will evolve in two phases: the first phase focuses on expanding coverage and establishing a foundation by 2027, while the second phase aims to make the carbon market a primary channel for greenhouse gas reduction by 2030 [26][29]. - By the end of the "15th Five-Year Plan," the carbon market is expected to cover 80% of carbon emissions, with a focus on improving the efficiency of renewable energy systems and reducing costs [26][30].