【广发宏观郭磊】10月经济：一般消费好转，但总量压力有所上行

Core Viewpoint - The economic data for October indicates a general slowdown in total economic activity, with key indicators such as industrial output, services, investment, retail sales, exports, and real estate sales all showing varying degrees of decline compared to previous values [1][5][19]. Economic Data Overview - The monthly GDP index simulated from industrial output, retail sales, and service production indices shows a year-on-year growth of 4.53%. This index has gradually recovered since the low in September 2022, reaching a high in March 2023, but has faced pressure in the second quarter and again in October [1][6]. - To achieve the annual growth target of 5%, the combined growth for November and December needs to be no less than 4.5% [1][6]. Industrial Sector Analysis - October's industrial output growth was 4.9%, down from 6.5% in the previous month. The month-on-month seasonally adjusted industrial value added was 0.17%, significantly lower than the previous 0.65% [6][8]. - The decline in industrial output is attributed to three main factors: fluctuations in export delivery values, a slowdown in major industrial product outputs, and the impact of policy financial tools on the construction sector [2][8]. - Key industrial product outputs showed negative growth, including crude steel (-12.1%), cement (-15.8%), and solar cells (-8.7%), while integrated circuit production increased by 17.7% [8][12]. Retail Sales Insights - Retail sales in October did not show an overall decline, with many categories improving. The apparent slowdown was mainly due to high base effects in durable goods like automobiles. Excluding automobiles, retail sales grew by 4.0%, surpassing the previous 3.2% [9][10]. - Growth was observed in sectors such as dining, alcohol, food, clothing, cosmetics, and daily necessities, while declines were noted in real estate-related furniture and high-base automotive and home appliance sales [9][10]. Fixed Asset Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment saw an expanded decline, with cumulative year-on-year growth dropping from -0.5% to -1.7%, and a monthly decline of 11.2% [3][11]. - The share of real estate development in fixed asset investment fell to 18.0%, the lowest since 2018. Excluding real estate, fixed asset investment growth was only 1.7%, indicating persistent low levels [3][11]. Real Estate Market Conditions - Real estate data in October continued to show significant pressure, with declines in sales, new construction, investment completion, and funding availability [15][16]. - The price indices for new and second-hand residential properties in 70 major cities showed a slight increase in the rate of decline compared to previous values, indicating a need for price stabilization to support sales and investment [15][17]. Overall Economic Outlook - The overall economic data for October suggests a marginal increase in total pressure, with structural highlights in general consumption and service consumption showing initial signs of recovery [4][19]. - The shortfalls remain in fixed asset investment and real estate volume and price, with recent policy measures yet to translate into hard data [4][19].