国泰海通｜食饮：CPI结构变化趋势对消费影响分析

Core Insights - The article emphasizes that moderate inflation is beneficial for promoting consumption recovery, with service and non-food prices showing signs of improvement, indicating a potential stabilization and rebound in the consumption sector [1][3]. Group 1: CPI and PPI Analysis - The report highlights a rebound in service sector CPI and stabilization in food CPI, suggesting that future PPI increases may drive further improvements in CPI, with consumer goods likely to benefit first [2]. - It notes a structural shift in consumption from goods to services, with service CPI consistently outperforming food CPI since 2012, reflecting an oversupply in goods and a growing demand for services [2]. - The relationship between PPI and CPI is discussed, indicating that PPI increases typically lead to CPI increases, and if PPI begins to rise in 2026, it could support CPI recovery [2]. Group 2: Consumption Trends - The article anticipates that the recent cold weather will enhance autumn and winter-related consumption, particularly in the food and beverage sectors, which are expected to benefit from anticipated CPI recovery and weather influences [3]. - It mentions that food CPI is significantly affected by factors such as pork prices, which continue to exert pressure, while non-food CPI remains relatively stable [2][3].