国泰海通｜宏观：M1同比回落：哪些因素——2025年10月金融数据点评

Core Insights - Recent months have seen weak credit performance from both enterprises and households, with the central bank downplaying the focus on loan quantity targets [1] - The pressure to meet annual economic targets is easing, shifting policy focus towards the implementation and observation of existing tools rather than urgent new stimulus [1] - The introduction of new policy financial tools is expected to gradually support enterprise loans, while the Ministry of Finance has allocated 500 billion yuan to local governments to stabilize social financing in the last two months of the year [1] Group 1 - The central bank has indicated a reduced emphasis on loan quantity targets, suggesting that social financing and monetary indicators will be used to gauge policy effectiveness [1] - Despite low credit growth, social financing and monetary growth rates remain stable, indicating strong financial support for the real economy [1] - The urgency for new incremental stimulus measures is decreasing, with expectations for further policy deployment in the coming year [1] Group 2 - Looking ahead to next year, continued monetary policy easing is necessary to improve demand and price expectations, with room for further adjustments in mortgage rates, deposit rates, and policy rates [2] - As of the end of September, the weighted average interest rate for new personal mortgages has only decreased by 3 basis points to 3.06%, highlighting the need for further reductions in both existing and new mortgage rates due to ongoing pressures in the real estate sector [2]