美联储预防式降息周期下的全球大类资产前景｜财富与资管

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the initiation of a new preventive interest rate cut cycle by the Federal Reserve, predicting a further decline in U.S. Treasury yields, continued support for U.S. equities, particularly in technology and interest-sensitive sectors, a potential upward trend in the U.S. dollar index, and the ongoing long-term bull market for gold [2][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Policy - The Federal Reserve has begun a new preventive interest rate cut cycle, with a 25 basis point cut in September and October 2025, indicating a shift in monetary policy focus towards employment risks over inflation risks [3][5]. - The Fed's adjustment of its monetary policy framework at the Jackson Hole meeting in August 2025 allows for a more flexible approach to inflation, suggesting that past high inflation levels will not heavily influence future policy decisions [5]. - The Fed's baseline assumption is that tariff-induced inflation is "one-time," which implies that even if inflation data rises in the coming months, the Fed will prioritize employment and economic stability over immediate inflation concerns [5][6]. Group 2: Economic Forecasts and Inflation - The Fed's updated economic forecasts indicate a slight increase in the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index for 2025 and 2026, reflecting ongoing inflationary pressures primarily driven by tariffs [6]. - The Fed anticipates three interest rate cuts in 2025, an increase from previous forecasts, but expects only one cut in 2026 and 2027, indicating a slow overall pace of rate reductions under the preventive cut framework [6]. Group 3: Historical Context of Rate Cuts - The article categorizes the Federal Reserve's rate cut cycles since the 1990s into two types: emergency cuts and preventive cuts, with the latter characterized by slower and smaller reductions in response to marginal economic declines [8][10]. - Historical examples of preventive cuts include the 1995-1996 cycle to address economic slowdown, the 1998 cycle to mitigate risks from the Asian financial crisis, and the 2019 cycle to counteract trade war impacts [10][11]. Group 4: Asset Price Reactions - U.S. Treasury yields typically decline significantly before the first rate cut, with a more pronounced drop in yields during preventive cut cycles compared to emergency cuts, as market expectations adjust ahead of official policy changes [13]. - U.S. equities tend to perform well during preventive cut cycles due to improved economic fundamentals and increased investor risk appetite, contrasting with the poorer performance seen during emergency cut cycles where economic conditions are more dire [14].