行业数据｜库存规模连降、多地房价止跌，高质量转型孕育结构性机遇

Core Viewpoint - The real estate industry is undergoing a critical transition towards high-quality development, with structural highlights in individual cities and projects despite overall adjustments in key indicators like sales and investment [2][26]. Economic Development - In October 2025, the national economy maintained a stable and progressive development, with industrial production growing by 4.9% year-on-year and high-tech manufacturing increasing by 7.2% [4]. - Social retail sales reached 46,291 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [4]. - Fixed asset investment saw a year-on-year decline, but manufacturing investment grew by 2.7% [4]. - The urban unemployment rate decreased to 5.1%, down by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [4]. Financial Data - M2 money supply grew by 8.2% year-on-year, while M1 increased by 6.2% [5]. - The significant drop in personal mortgage loans by 30% year-on-year indicates a shift towards securities investment by residents [5]. - The central bank is enhancing financial stability measures and promoting risk resolution in the real estate market [5][6]. Real Estate Market Performance - New home sales in the first ten months of 2025 totaled 7.2 billion square meters, down 6.8% year-on-year, with October showing a significant decline of 19% in sales volume [9][10]. - The average price of new homes in first-tier cities fell by 0.8% year-on-year, with Shanghai experiencing a 5.7% increase [13][14]. - The inventory of unsold homes decreased for eight consecutive months, indicating a gradual improvement in market conditions [9][19]. Construction and Investment Trends - From January to October 2025, real estate development investment totaled 7.4 trillion yuan, down 14.7% year-on-year [22]. - New construction area in October was 3,662 million square meters, a decline of 29.5% year-on-year, reflecting ongoing structural adjustments in the industry [18][22]. - The average land premium rate reached 6.8%, the highest since 2022, indicating a return to rationality in the market [22]. Future Outlook - The industry is expected to continue facing challenges as it transitions to high-quality development, with price adjustments and inventory management being critical [26][27]. - The promotion of affordable housing and improved financial policies are anticipated to stabilize the market and support new construction [27].