【招银研究|宏观点评】逆风加大——中国经济数据点评（2025年10月）

Economic Overview - In October, major economic indicators in China fell short of market expectations, with industrial added value growing by 4.9% year-on-year (expected 5.2%) and the service production index increasing by 4.6% [1][6] - Fixed asset investment showed a cumulative decline of 1.7% year-on-year (expected -0.7%), with infrastructure and manufacturing growth rates at 1.5% and 2.7% respectively, both below expectations [1][6] Consumption - Retail sales growth was 2.9% year-on-year, slightly down from the previous month, with significant structural changes observed [7] - Durable goods consumption weakened, particularly in the automotive and home appliance sectors, with automotive sales down 6.6% year-on-year [7] - Service consumption, particularly in the restaurant sector, showed improvement, with restaurant service consumption growth rising to 3.8% [7][8] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment declined by 1.7% in October, with significant drops in real estate investment at -14.7% and manufacturing investment at -6.7% [11][14] - Real estate sales saw a notable decrease, with sales area and amount down 18.8% and 24.3% respectively [11] - Infrastructure investment continued to contract, with a year-on-year decline of 12.1% [12] Trade - Exports in October saw a significant drop, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.1% in dollar terms, marking the first negative growth since February 2025 [16] - Imports also slowed to a growth rate of 1.0%, indicating weak domestic demand [19] Supply Side - Industrial production growth slowed, with the industrial added value increasing by only 4.9%, below market expectations [22] - The manufacturing PMI fell to 49.7, indicating contraction for the first time since April [22] Inflation - CPI turned positive at 0.2%, the highest since February, while core CPI inflation rose to 1.2% [23][24] - PPI showed a slight recovery, with a year-on-year decline narrowing to 2.1% [24] Forward Outlook - The necessity for policy support has increased, with multiple incremental policies expected to take effect in November and December to boost infrastructure and manufacturing investment [27]