黄金近期波动较大，还能上涨吗，当前估值如何？｜第415期精品课程

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the historical performance of gold, its current valuation, and investment considerations, emphasizing the impact of various factors such as inflation, monetary policy, and market conditions on gold prices [4][6][70]. Historical Performance of Gold - Over the past 200 years, gold has slightly outperformed inflation, with a long-term annualized return of around 0.6% after adjusting for inflation [6][7]. - Since 1971, when the U.S. abandoned the gold standard, gold's long-term annualized return has significantly increased to 8.89% [10][12]. - Gold has experienced three major bull and bear market cycles since 1971, with notable price fluctuations [15][18][20]. Recent Market Trends - Following the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut in September 2024, gold and other major asset classes have seen an overall increase [4]. - The current market has experienced a recent correction after a significant rise, coinciding with new tax regulations on gold investments [4][66]. Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The primary factor affecting gold prices is the U.S. dollar's real interest rate, which is calculated as nominal interest rate minus inflation rate [31][32]. - Other influencing factors include mining costs, geopolitical risks, and financial crises, which often drive investors towards gold as a safe-haven asset [37][43][70]. Valuation Assessment - Gold's valuation can be assessed using the ratio of gold price to average mining costs, with a price below mining costs indicating a strong buying opportunity [46][49]. - As of November 3, 2025, gold is rated at approximately 1.1 stars, suggesting it is not currently undervalued [49][64]. Investment Strategies - There are three primary purposes for investing in gold: decorative (jewelry), short-term investment (gold funds), and long-term hedging (physical gold) [55][56]. - Decisions on whether to take profits or continue holding gold should be based on the initial investment purpose and current market conditions [62][64]. Tax Implications - New tax regulations effective November 1, 2025, will impose differentiated tax rates on gold based on its use, affecting the cost of purchasing gold jewelry while maintaining lower costs for investment-grade gold [66][69].