数据点评 | 经济的难点与亮点？（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoints - The challenges lie in the overspending of consumer demand and the impact of clearing accounts on investment, while the highlights are the recovery of service consumption and the alleviation of debt issues [2][66] Production - The number of working days in October decreased year-on-year, and high inventory from previous periods constrained production, leading to a significant decline in industrial value-added growth, which fell by 1.6 percentage points to 4.9% [2][9] - The manufacturing sector experienced a notable decline in production growth, with a drop of 2.4 percentage points to 4.9% in October [9][33] Retail Sales - The retail sales growth in October was slightly down, primarily due to a significant decline in goods retail, which fell by 0.5 percentage points to 2.8%, while catering revenue improved by 2.9 percentage points to 3.8% [6][52] - The "old-for-new" consumption model, particularly in automobiles and home appliances, saw notable declines, with automobiles down by 8.2 percentage points to -6.6% and home appliances down by 17.9 percentage points to -14.6% [2][17] Investment - Fixed asset investment saw a significant decline, with a year-on-year drop of 3.6 percentage points to -10.7% in October, influenced by land acquisition costs and corporate account clearing [3][19] - The construction and installation investment growth rate remained stable, showing no further significant decline, while manufacturing and service sector investments saw substantial decreases [3][67] Real Estate - The demand side for real estate remains weak, with sales and housing prices showing downward trends, while the supply side also experienced significant declines in investment, new starts, and completions [3][24] - The average price of new homes in 70 cities continued to decline, with sales area and sales amount down by 15.1 percentage points and 17.1 percentage points, respectively, to -25.6% and -28.9% [3][24] Summary - Short-term factors are disrupting the economy, but their impact is weakening at the margin; policies are actively countering these effects, and the economy is expected to maintain resilience in the fourth quarter [4][68] - The potential risks for the economy include overspending in consumer demand and the impact of inter-company account clearing on investment, alongside structural highlights such as the alleviation of debt issues [4][68]