【有色】商务部暂停实施对美出口限制一年，锑出口有望恢复——锑行业系列报告之九（王招华/方驭涛/王秋琪）

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has announced a suspension of export restrictions on dual-use items to the United States, which is expected to boost China's antimony exports and potentially ease restrictions on exports to non-U.S. countries [4][5]. Group 1: Export Policy Changes - The Ministry of Commerce's announcement on November 9, 2025, suspends the implementation of the export control measures outlined in Announcement No. 46, which includes prohibiting dual-use items for military users in the U.S. and stricter licensing for certain materials [5]. - The suspension is effective immediately and will last until November 27, 2026, allowing for a potential recovery in exports of antimony and other dual-use items to the U.S. [5][6]. Group 2: Antimony Export Outlook - In 2023, China's antimony export volume accounted for 36% of its total production. The recent crackdown on export smuggling has significantly reduced antimony exports, with monthly figures dropping to 2%-7% of the normal average [6]. - The easing of export restrictions is anticipated to directly restore antimony exports to the U.S. and may also lead to increased exports to other countries, thereby driving overall growth in China's antimony exports [6]. Group 3: Price Trends and Market Dynamics - The price of antimony ingots in China rose from 143,000 CNY/ton to 240,000 CNY/ton between February 10 and April 17, 2025, marking a 68% increase due to low inventory, difficult raw material replenishment, and strong demand [8]. - Following this peak, prices fell to 150,000 CNY/ton by November 6, 2025, influenced by government policies targeting smuggling and a significant drop in antimony oxide exports [8]. - The price of antimony in the UK as of November 7, 2025, was approximately 44,750 USD/ton, indicating a substantial premium over domestic prices, suggesting that the price gap between domestic and international markets may narrow as exports recover [7].