【银行】贷款增长再现“小月”，社融与货币降速——2025年10月份金融数据点评（王一峰/赵晨阳）

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the slowdown in credit expansion in October 2025, highlighting insufficient demand and the impact of seasonal factors on loan growth, with a focus on the performance of various loan categories and monetary aggregates [3][4][9]. Group 1: Credit Expansion and Loan Data - In October, new RMB loans amounted to 220 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 280 billion, aligning with the lower end of predictions and below the consensus forecast of 460 billion [3][7]. - Cumulative new RMB loans since the beginning of the year reached 15 trillion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6 trillion, indicating a weak credit environment in the second half of the year [4]. - The corporate loan segment saw new loans of 350 billion in October, a year-on-year increase of 220 billion, with significant contributions from bill financing [5]. Group 2: Monetary Aggregates - M2 growth was recorded at 8.2%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the end of September, while M1 growth was at 6.2%, down 1 percentage point [10]. - The total social financing in October was 815 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 597 billion, with a growth rate of 8.5%, continuing a downward trend since August [9]. Group 3: Residential Loan Trends - Residential loans showed a seasonal decline, with a net decrease of 360 billion in October, a year-on-year drop of 520 billion, reflecting weak consumer demand and economic conditions [8]. - The share of residential loans in total new credit was 4.9%, significantly lower than the previous year's 12.7%, indicating a strong deleveraging trend among households [8].