中金 | 深度布局“十五五”：有色金属篇

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the increasing risks to China's strategic mineral resource security and the need for domestic exploration and production to enhance the growth potential of Chinese mining companies, particularly in the non-ferrous metals sector, amid a favorable market outlook driven by monetary, demand, and supply factors [2][12]. Group 1: Strategic Mineral Resource Security - China's reliance on foreign sources for most strategic mineral resources is high, with projections indicating that by 2024, most resources will have an external dependency rate exceeding 50% [3][5]. - The domestic supply of strategic mineral resources in China has a weak cost competitiveness globally, with most resources positioned above the 50th percentile on the global marginal cost curve [3][5]. Group 2: Policy Initiatives and Reforms - A new round of domestic exploration for strategic minerals was launched in early 2023, with significant reforms in mineral resource management being implemented [7][9]. - Key policy measures include the "10th Document" issued in March 2023, which aims to activate the development dynamics of the mining sector, and the ongoing revision of the Mineral Resources Law to enhance national resource security [7][9]. Group 3: Investment Trends in Non-Ferrous Metals - Since August 2023, fixed investment in China's non-ferrous metal mining sector has shown a significant increase, with a cumulative year-on-year growth exceeding 30%, reaching a record high of 208.9 billion yuan in 2024 [10][12]. - The investment momentum in the non-ferrous metal mining sector is expected to continue, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 49% reported by September 2025 [10][12]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The non-ferrous metals industry is anticipated to enter a bullish market phase driven by a confluence of monetary easing, rising demand from emerging industries, and supply constraints due to insufficient capital expenditures over the past decade [12][13]. - Precious metals are expected to benefit from declining real interest rates and a shift away from the US dollar, with silver likely to gain from rising gold prices and improving demand [13].