中金 | 深度布局“十五五”：房地产篇

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the long-term institutional reforms needed to promote high-quality development in the real estate sector, focusing on a multi-level housing supply system and the need for policy adjustments to stabilize the market and ensure housing security [2][10][14]. Group 1: Multi-level Housing Supply System - The construction of a multi-level housing supply system emphasizes the need for both affordable housing and improved housing options, particularly in first and second-tier cities where housing affordability is a concern [2]. - Affordable housing supply should focus on areas with weaker payment capabilities, while improved housing policies should enhance living standards beyond mere square footage, incorporating safety, comfort, and sustainability [3][10]. - The shift towards a "good housing" concept aims to elevate housing standards across the entire supply chain, which may lead to structural market fluctuations in the short term [3][10]. Group 2: Adjusting Purchase Restrictions - The article highlights the need for localized adjustments to housing purchase restrictions to avoid market distortions while managing market temperatures [6][10]. - Following a period of rising sales and prices, the market is now in a downturn, prompting many cities to lift purchase restrictions and implement housing subsidies, which may have limited immediate effects but contribute to long-term market stabilization [6][10]. - As the market potentially enters an upturn, selective demand restrictions may be necessary in core cities, while most cities should focus on increasing supply rather than limiting demand [6][10]. Group 3: Improving Development and Financing Systems - The article stresses the importance of enhancing the foundational systems for real estate development, financing, and sales to prevent high-leverage operations and ensure project completion [10][14]. - Long-term solutions should include better financial support for healthier equity-debt ratios, improved regulation of pre-sale funds, and mechanisms to encourage a certain proportion of sales to be in existing homes [10][14]. - The establishment of specialized institutions for systematic restructuring of distressed real estate firms is suggested as a means to mitigate credit risks and stabilize market expectations [14][16]. Group 4: Housing Renovation Mechanisms - The article proposes the creation of a sustainable housing renovation mechanism to address the aging housing stock, moving away from large-scale demolition towards more balanced urban renewal strategies [16][17]. - The concept of a housing pension system is introduced to fund ongoing maintenance and upgrades, ensuring that urban renewal can be sustained without excessive reliance on government funding [16][17]. - Pilot programs for housing pensions have been initiated in major cities, aiming to create a framework for managing housing safety and maintenance costs effectively [16][17].