中金 | 深度布局“十五五”：农业农村现代化篇

Core Viewpoint - The modernization of agriculture is driven by technological advancements and brand enhancement, which are essential for the transformation and upgrading of the modern agricultural industry chain [1]. Group 1: Agricultural Production Capacity Enhancement - The key to enhancing agricultural production capacity lies in agricultural technology modernization, with global food production increasing by 379% from 1961 to 2023, where yield growth contributed 75% [2]. - In China, the single crop yield for corn and soybeans in 2023 was only 59% and 57% of the levels in the United States, indicating significant room for improvement [2][4]. - The strategy of "storing grain in the land and technology" is crucial for ensuring food security, emphasizing the importance of land protection and quality improvement [2]. Group 2: Agricultural Technology Modernization - Agricultural technology modernization is vital for improving comprehensive agricultural production capacity, with a focus on seed technology and equipment technology [6]. - The 2025 Central Document No. 1 emphasizes the need for collaborative efforts in agricultural technology and the development of new agricultural productivity [6]. - The seed industry is experiencing a revival driven by strengthened intellectual property protection and technological advancements, with R&D investment by leading listed seed companies increasing from 40 million to 980 million yuan from 2010 to 2024 [7]. Group 3: Smart Agriculture - The continuous increase in policy support for smart agriculture is expected to drive long-term industry development, with land transfer areas rising from 450 million mu in 2015 to 590 million mu in 2023 [10]. - The penetration rate of smart agriculture in China is approximately 9%, compared to about 60% in Europe and the U.S., indicating significant future growth potential [10]. - The 2025 Central Document No. 1 and various action plans highlight the importance of smart agriculture in modern agricultural development [10]. Group 4: Intelligent Agricultural Equipment - The trend of urbanization has led to a decrease in agricultural labor supply, with the number of agricultural workers dropping from 330 million in 2005 to 160 million in 2023, resulting in rising labor costs [11]. - Technological advancements in intelligent agricultural equipment have improved efficiency across various agricultural operations, marking a turning point for "machine substitution" in agriculture [11][14]. - The cost of intelligent agricultural equipment is gradually decreasing, enhancing the competitiveness of machine-based operations over manual labor [11]. Group 5: Brand Agriculture - The high-quality development of the agricultural industry chain requires collaboration between upstream and downstream sectors, with a focus on enhancing the quality of agricultural products and processed foods [14]. - The development of brand agriculture is crucial for upgrading the overall value chain of agricultural products, with examples from kitchen foods and tea demonstrating successful practices [14][15]. - The kitchen food sector benefits from order agriculture, which ensures standardized and large-scale supply, while brand positioning enhances product value [15][19]. Group 6: Tea Industry - The tea industry faces challenges due to non-standardization and high trust costs, making brand positioning and channel layout critical for success [19]. - High-end brand positioning can effectively reduce consumer recognition difficulties and enhance brand value [19]. - The evolution of offline channels in the tea industry aims to strengthen customer experience and brand trust through differentiated services [19].