中金 | 深度布局“十五五”：油气化工篇

Core Viewpoint - The oil and gas chemical industry is expected to prioritize high-quality development during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, focusing on improving efficiency and safety while addressing competitive pressures and environmental goals [2][7][14]. Group 1: Achievements During the "14th Five-Year Plan" - The Chinese chemical industry has achieved significant growth, with projected revenues reaching 14.5 trillion yuan in 2024, a 45% increase from 2020 [2]. - China has established the world's largest and most comprehensive production system for chemical products, with over 50% of global production capacity in key chemicals like PTA, PA6, and methanol [2][6]. - By 2024, 11 Chinese companies are expected to be among the top 50 global chemical firms, accounting for 28% of the total revenue of these companies [2][6]. Group 2: Development Focus for the "15th Five-Year Plan" - The focus will shift towards quality-first strategies, emphasizing technological advancement, efficiency, and profitability to close the gap with developed countries [7][9]. - Key development directions include enhancing traditional chemical industries, advancing new materials technology, and promoting green and low-carbon development [15][19]. Group 3: Traditional Chemical Industry Enhancement - The "15th Five-Year Plan" suggests optimizing traditional industries to improve competitiveness and quality, particularly in sectors like mining, metallurgy, and chemicals [9][14]. - The industry has seen rapid capital expenditure growth since 2022, but faces challenges from increased competition and declining profit margins [14][19]. - The government is expected to implement measures to combat "involution" in the chemical sector, promoting high-quality development [14][15]. Group 4: New Materials Technology Advancement - The plan emphasizes the development of strategic emerging industries, including new materials and advanced manufacturing technologies [15][16]. - There is significant potential for domestic substitution in semiconductor materials and advanced packaging materials, with many categories still relying heavily on imports [15][17]. - The government aims to enhance self-sufficiency in key materials through targeted R&D initiatives [16]. Group 5: Green and Low-Carbon Development - The "15th Five-Year Plan" outlines goals for carbon peak and reduction, including implementing dual control over total carbon emissions and intensity [19]. - The plan includes measures for energy efficiency, promoting distributed energy systems, and expanding the carbon trading market [19][18]. - The chemical industry is expected to face stricter entry barriers based on carbon emissions, driving a transition towards high-quality, low-carbon production [19].