申万宏观·周度研究成果（11.8-11.14）

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current macroeconomic situation in China and the implications of U.S. tariff policies, highlighting the potential decline in tariff levels and its impact on trade dynamics [5][8]. Deep Dive - The macroeconomic analysis by Zhao Wei emphasizes the need for a comprehensive understanding of China's economic landscape and future outlook, particularly in light of recent global events [6][7]. Hot Topics - The article analyzes the ongoing debate regarding U.S. tariffs, suggesting that the scale of tariffs may decrease by 25% under baseline scenarios, which could significantly affect trade relations [8]. - The Supreme Court's deliberations on the legality of "countervailing tariffs" under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) are highlighted, with various justices expressing differing views on the extent of executive power in imposing tariffs [8]. High-Frequency Tracking - The article identifies three main factors contributing to the recent rise in inflation, indicating that the impact of internal competition is limited, and other external factors are more influential [11]. - It discusses the necessity of maintaining relatively loose social financing conditions through a combination of policy tools to support economic growth [12]. - The recent resolution of the U.S. government shutdown and stronger-than-expected ADP employment figures are noted as positive developments for the U.S. economy [16][19]. Economic Insights - The article points out the challenges in the economy, such as overspending in commodity demand and investment drag, while also noting the recovery in service consumption and easing debt pressures as positive signs [20]. - The phenomenon of "deposit migration" is mentioned, indicating shifts in consumer behavior regarding savings [22].