“鹰派”公开“跳反”，美联储本周砸盘，12月降息预期已跌破50%

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve officials generally agree that the labor market has cooled, but opinions vary on whether this slowdown will worsen. Some express optimism about price pressures, while others warn that current interest rates have a weak suppressive effect on the economy, and further rate cuts could risk the progress of returning inflation to target [1][2][20]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - After successfully securing support for rate cuts in the last two meetings, Powell acknowledged that another cut is not guaranteed. Several officials, including regional Fed presidents, have indicated they will not support a rate cut in the upcoming December meeting [2][4]. - Market expectations shifted dramatically, with traders betting on a pause in policy after the Fed's October 29 announcement of a rate cut. However, by the following Friday, the probability of another cut had dropped to 40% [2][4]. Group 2: Diverging Opinions on Rate Cuts - Opponents of further rate cuts emphasize two main points: first, the slowdown in U.S. job growth may reflect changes in immigration policy and technology rather than a severe decline in labor demand; second, inflation risks include not only tariffs but also resilient overall consumer demand, which undermines the Fed's credibility [6][7]. - Officials like Schmid and Logan have expressed concerns that further rate cuts may not alleviate labor market pressures and could have lasting negative effects on inflation targets [8][9][10]. Group 3: Doves vs. Hawks - The dovish camp has not conceded, with members like newly appointed Fed governor Stephen Milan advocating for rapid and significant rate cuts to avoid potential harm to the labor market. Milan argues that current rates are too high and that data supports a more dovish stance [12][13]. - Other officials, such as Waller and Bowman, remain more concerned about the labor market than inflation, thus supporting rate cuts [16]. Group 4: Current Economic Climate - The Fed is currently in a challenging position, with Powell acknowledging significant divisions among officials regarding the December rate cut. This complexity makes it difficult to achieve reasonable policy outcomes [20][21]. - Analysts suggest that the current policy debate may foreshadow a divided voting landscape in the future, particularly under a Fed chair appointed by Trump [21].