《经济学人》2026展望丨美国2026年的乐观指南

Core Viewpoint - The article presents an optimistic outlook for the future of America, contrasting historical pessimism with potential positive developments in governance and policy [3][4]. Group 1: Historical Context - Founding fathers like Washington, Jefferson, and Hamilton expressed concerns about the sustainability of the American experiment, fearing external threats and internal chaos [3]. - The pessimism surrounding the republic has persisted since the Declaration of Independence, with contemporary political issues echoing historical grievances [4]. Group 2: Political Developments - By 2026, there may be judicial constraints on presidential emergency powers, potentially limiting the current president's ability to act unilaterally [5]. - The article speculates on a scenario where the president's authority is curtailed, particularly regarding the National Guard and immigration enforcement [5][6]. Group 3: Immigration and Economic Policy - The Trump administration's second phase of immigration policy aims to balance high-skilled immigration with reforms to asylum laws, garnering bipartisan support [6]. - Economic indicators show positive trends, including increased solar energy production and a stable tariff environment, contributing to a more predictable economic landscape [6][7]. Group 4: Political Landscape and Elections - The Republican Party gained a majority in the House during the midterm elections, aided by the president's political achievements and a stable international situation [7]. - The article suggests that despite the unpredictability of American politics, historical precedents indicate that unexpected outcomes can occur [7].