《经济学人》2026展望丨2026年值得关注的十大趋势

Group 1 - The 250th anniversary of the United States will lead to contrasting narratives from Republicans and Democrats, influencing the midterm elections in November [6] - Trump's intuitive, transactional diplomacy will further erode the old rules-based global order, while "coalitions of the willing" will form new agreements in defense, trade, and climate [7] - The ongoing conflicts in Ukraine, Sudan, and Myanmar will blur the lines between war and peace, with increasing tensions in the Arctic, space, seabed, and cyberspace [8] Group 2 - Europe faces unique challenges, needing to increase defense spending, secure U.S. support, promote economic growth, and manage significant deficits, all while potentially fueling far-right party support [9] - Trump's "America First" policy has opened new opportunities for China to enhance its global influence, particularly in the Global South through various trade agreements [10] - The risk of a bond market crisis is rising as wealthy nations face budget deficits, with the outcome largely dependent on the successor to Jerome Powell at the Federal Reserve [11] Group 3 - Concerns about artificial intelligence are growing, as significant U.S. spending on AI infrastructure may mask economic weaknesses, raising fears about its impact on employment, especially for graduates [12] - The goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C is increasingly seen as unattainable, with clean energy technologies thriving in the Global South, despite Trump's aversion to renewable energy [13] - The upcoming joint hosting of the World Cup by the U.S., Canada, and Mexico may be overshadowed by political tensions, while the "enhanced Olympics" in Las Vegas could spark controversy over doping [14]