诡异的现象：特朗普反复强调降息，美联储新主席候选人却集体讨论“缩表”

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the emerging hawkish consensus among candidates for the next Federal Reserve chair, focusing on the need to limit the central bank's balance sheet, contrasting sharply with President Trump's calls for lower interest rates [1][3][4]. Group 1: Candidates' Stance - Candidates for the next Federal Reserve chair, including Kevin Warsh and Michelle Bowman, express concerns over the current balance sheet size exceeding $6 trillion, advocating for a reduction to create space for lowering short-term interest rates without triggering inflation [4][5]. - Warsh has consistently argued for limiting the central bank's size over the past 15 years, suggesting that reducing the balance sheet could allow for lower interest rates without inflationary consequences [4][6]. Group 2: Trump's Contradictory Position - President Trump's public pressure for lower interest rates conflicts with the candidates' focus on balance sheet reduction, highlighting a tension between his desire to stimulate borrowing and the candidates' caution regarding market intervention [5][6]. - Trump's past comments, such as his 2018 tweet urging the Fed to stop reducing its balance sheet, illustrate his concern over liquidity in financing markets, raising questions about his true stance on the Fed's influence [5][6]. Group 3: Policy Logic Behind Balance Sheet Reduction - The candidates' calls for balance sheet reduction stem from Republican concerns about the long-term effects of quantitative easing (QE), which is seen as a tool that disrupts market discipline and exacerbates wealth inequality [6][7][9]. - Critics argue that QE has led to increased government spending and has artificially inflated asset prices, contributing to wealth disparity [8][9]. Group 4: Market Outlook and Future Decisions - The Federal Reserve plans to halt balance sheet reduction by December 1 to prevent liquidity issues in the financial system, a decision supported by key economic advisors [11]. - Future actions by the Fed will depend on the economic landscape, with indications that QE may still be considered if significant risks to employment and price stability arise [12][14].