KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) 21世纪经济报道·2025-11-16 02:14Core Viewpoint - The essence of investment lies in deeply understanding the intrinsic value and future cash flows of a company, rather than being swayed by short-term market price fluctuations [3][6]. Investment Philosophy - Duan Yongping currently holds only Kweichow Moutai in the A-share market, emphasizing that investment decisions should be based on future cash flows rather than single metrics like price-to-earnings ratios [2]. - He believes that if a stock cannot withstand a 50% drop, it should not have been purchased in the first place, indicating a strong conviction in understanding the intrinsic value of investments [2][3]. - Duan identifies as a "full position" investor, preferring to avoid holding large amounts of cash due to low interest rates, and he is cautious about switching investments without clear opportunities [2][3]. Decision-Making and Opportunity Cost - Duan emphasizes the importance of continuously evaluating opportunity costs during the holding period of an investment, suggesting that long-term holding does not equate to never selling [4][5]. - He illustrates that if he had understood Nvidia's potential five years ago, it would have been reasonable to switch from Moutai to Nvidia if conditions allowed [4]. Understanding Companies - Duan asserts that the principle of "buying stocks means buying companies" is simple but challenging to execute, as truly understanding a company's business model and future cash flows is difficult [6]. - He notes that even if one does not fully understand a company, it is still possible to make money, but such success is often based on luck rather than skill [6]. Cultural and Strategic Insights - Duan critiques Nokia's decline, attributing it to a failure to prioritize user needs and a rigid adherence to its own systems, which led to missed opportunities [7]. - He stresses that understanding a company requires looking beyond its business and trends to examine its internal culture and strategic direction [7]. Talent Selection and Organizational Culture - Duan believes that selecting individuals with shared values is crucial for organizational success, emphasizing that a strong cultural alignment fosters long-term relationships and cohesion [9]. - He categorizes individuals in an organization as either "like-minded" or "co-workers," highlighting the importance of deep value alignment for effective collaboration [9].