首席商业评论·2025-11-16 04:12Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent actions of SoftBank's Masayoshi Son regarding NVIDIA, highlighting concerns about potential market bubbles and the implications of heavy investments in AI, particularly in OpenAI [3][10][12]. Group 1: SoftBank's Actions - SoftBank has completely liquidated its NVIDIA holdings, cashing out approximately $5.83 billion (around 41.5 billion RMB), which led to a significant drop in NVIDIA's market value by $100 billion overnight [3][10]. - This marks the second time Son has sold off NVIDIA shares, with a previous liquidation in 2019 that has since been viewed as a cautionary tale in the investment community [10][11]. - The decision to sell NVIDIA is seen as a strategic move to free up capital for investments in OpenAI, with SoftBank's CFO stating the need for liquidity to fulfill commitments to OpenAI [12][14]. Group 2: Investment Strategy and Risks - Son's investment strategy appears to focus on concentrated bets on leading companies rather than diversified hedging, which has led to significant losses in past investments, such as WeWork and Coupang [7][11]. - The article raises concerns about the sustainability of OpenAI's business model, noting that it may face substantial losses and cash burn in the coming years, with estimates suggesting losses exceeding $5 billion by 2025 [18][21]. - There are indications that the current market environment may be experiencing a bubble, with warnings from prominent figures about the risks associated with inflated asset prices in the tech sector [18][19]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The article suggests that the heavy reliance on circular financing among tech companies, including OpenAI, creates an illusion of unlimited demand while facing real supply constraints, particularly in energy and resources [21][24]. - Historical patterns indicate that SoftBank's stock splits have often coincided with significant market downturns, raising questions about the potential implications of its upcoming stock split [15][18]. - The future of OpenAI is uncertain, with challenges related to energy supply and operational sustainability posing significant risks to its growth and profitability [22][24].