刘元春：如何提高居民消费率？｜宏观经济

Core Viewpoint - The low consumption rate in China is a multifaceted issue, primarily driven by the low share of household income in the national income distribution, rather than just short-term consumption policies or immediate adjustments to the Gini coefficient [2][4][9]. Group 1: Current Consumption Rate Situation - In 2020, China's household consumption rate was 38.8%, significantly lower than countries with similar GDP per capita, such as Argentina (63%), Poland (53.6%), and the United States (68%) [4][6]. - The final consumption expenditure accounted for 54.3% of GDP in China, while developed countries typically see this figure around 80% [6]. Group 2: Factors Contributing to Low Consumption - The low consumption rate does not equate to insufficient consumption, as China's average annual growth rate of household consumption from 2000 to 2019 was 8.24%, outperforming the U.S. (2.36%) and the Eurozone (1.09%) [7]. - The government consumption in China is relatively high, while household consumption remains low, with service consumption only around 25%, indicating a significant gap compared to other countries [7][8]. - The distribution of national income shows that the household sector accounts for 60.6% of the initial distribution, which is 5.5 percentage points lower than the world average, while the corporate sector is higher than average [8]. Group 3: Recommendations for Improving Consumption - To address the low consumption rate, the government should transition from an investment-oriented to a service-oriented role, enhancing social security systems and providing affordable housing to increase consumer funds [9]. - There is a need for a combination of short-term stimulus and structural reforms to address both immediate consumption gaps and long-term consumption issues [12][13]. - The estimated average consumption gap from 2020 to 2024 is around 6% annually, equating to approximately 2.9 trillion yuan, necessitating targeted policies to fill this gap [13].