【广发宏观团队】明年通胀中枢会有所回升吗？

Inflation Outlook - The core viewpoint of the article suggests that inflation is expected to rise in 2026 due to several favorable conditions, including the potential recovery of the pig cycle, which historically follows a four-year pattern [2] - The PPI showed positive month-on-month growth for the first time this year, and core CPI year-on-year growth reached 1.2%, the highest since March 2024, indicating a shift in inflation expectations [1] Economic Indicators - The pig cycle is likely to start recovering in 2026, with average wholesale prices expected to stabilize around 16 yuan/kg, similar to previous lows [2] - Key industries have passed the peak of capacity pressure, with investment growth in sectors like black metallurgy and electrical machinery showing significant declines [3] - Policies aimed at reducing "involution" are gradually taking effect, stabilizing coal prices and impacting other sectors like steel and chemicals [3] Market Dynamics - The article notes that the real estate market's stabilization is crucial for the overall inflation trajectory, as it influences prices of cyclical and consumer goods [4] - The U.S. government reopening has eased liquidity pressures but has not resolved uncertainties in macro data and interest rate cuts, leading to volatile market conditions [4][5] Commodity Prices - Precious metals have seen price increases, with gold and silver rising significantly year-to-date, driven by safe-haven demand [7] - Oil prices are influenced by geopolitical risks, while copper prices are supported by a balanced supply-demand situation [8] Financial Market Trends - The article highlights fluctuations in U.S. stock markets, with the S&P 500 experiencing volatility amid changing investor sentiment [5] - European stocks have shown resilience, with the STOXX600 index leading global asset performance [6] Policy Developments - The Chinese government is implementing measures to enhance consumer demand and support private investment, indicating a focus on economic recovery [32][33] - New guidelines on anti-monopoly compliance for internet platforms aim to address issues of price competition and market fairness [26][27] Construction and Investment - The construction sector is facing challenges, with funding rates declining and project financing still lagging behind expectations [24][25] - The article notes a divergence in financial data, with an increase in entrusted loans but a decrease in long-term corporate loans, reflecting ongoing economic pressures [25] Consumer Behavior - Consumer spending is expected to remain subdued, with retail sales showing signs of weakness, particularly in the automotive sector [19] - The article anticipates a limited rebound in consumer price indices due to low base effects in the coming months [20]