中金 | 产业出海系列：北美缺电，哪些中国企业有望受益？

Group 1: North America's Electricity Shortage - North America is facing significant electricity shortages driven by increased demand from AI expansion, manufacturing changes, and electrification, with a notable rise in electricity consumption growth [2] - The rapid growth of data centers, particularly due to partnerships like that of OpenAI and NVIDIA, is expected to contribute to a substantial increase in electricity demand, with a projected capital expenditure growth of 58.5% for major cloud providers by 2025 [2] - The aging power grid and the retirement of old coal and gas projects exacerbate the supply-demand imbalance, with a forecasted annual electricity load increase of over 30GW in the next five years, primarily from data centers [2] Group 2: Impact on Electricity Prices and Corporate Costs - The electricity shortage has led to a 6% increase in average retail electricity prices in the U.S. compared to the previous year, with some regions attributing this rise to the construction of data centers [3] - Rising electricity costs may pressure corporate profitability, necessitating vigilance regarding cost transmission effects on operations [3] - The U.S. government plans to invest hundreds of billions in nuclear power to address the electricity gap created by AI developments, with a goal of constructing ten large nuclear reactors by 2030 [3][4] Group 3: Beneficial Industries in China - The systemic electricity shortage in North America is expected to benefit several Chinese industries, including machinery, power equipment, photovoltaic energy, and non-ferrous metals, as demand is likely to increase due to the electricity gap [4] - Gas turbines are anticipated to be the primary new power source in the short term, with solid oxide fuel cells (SOFC), photovoltaics, and energy storage serving as supplementary solutions [4] Group 4: Opportunities in Equipment and Technology - Major global manufacturers like GE, Siemens, and Mitsubishi are expanding production to meet the demand for gas turbines driven by AI data center construction [5] - The North American power grid requires significant upgrades, with a projected transformer supply gap of up to 66% from 2024 to 2027, presenting opportunities for Chinese manufacturers [6] - Energy storage solutions are expected to become standard for AI data centers, with potential for increased demand in North America [7] Group 5: Emerging Technologies and Renewable Energy - High Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) systems and Solid State Transformers (SST) are seen as future solutions for the power needs of modern AI factories, with NVIDIA pushing for an upgrade to 800V HVDC systems by 2027 [8] - The demand for photovoltaic energy is expected to rise significantly due to the retirement of old power sources and the long construction timelines for new gas and nuclear plants [9] - The construction of new transmission networks in North America will increase the demand for aluminum, which is widely used in power transmission, potentially boosting the profitability of the electrolytic aluminum industry [10]