Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the need to maintain an overweight position in gold and Chinese technology stocks while reducing exposure to commodities and dollar assets as the market trends evolve in 2026 [2][8] - The article identifies four key factors that could potentially alter the bullish trends of stocks and gold in 2026: economic growth turning, tightening policies, high valuations, and geopolitical shocks [4][42] - Historical analysis shows that the U.S. stock market has a long bullish phase, while Chinese stocks experience more frequent bull-bear switches, making the timing of market tops more critical for Chinese stocks [3][10] Group 2 - The article outlines the importance of accurately interpreting economic and policy signals to predict market tops, noting that signals from economic and policy dimensions are generally more reliable than those from liquidity, earnings, and valuation [14][28] - For gold, the article highlights that the key determinant for its market top is the Federal Reserve's policy, with historical data showing that four out of five gold bull markets peaked when the Fed began tightening [31][32] - The current economic environment is characterized by a weak recovery in China and a potential stagflation scenario in the U.S., which could support the continuation of the stock bull market while posing risks to the gold bull market [44]
中金2026年展望 | 大类资产：乘势而上