【有色】美国数据中心高速发展，电力供应紧张带来电解铝投资机会——有色金属行业动态点评报告（王招华/方驭涛/马俊）

Core Viewpoint - The rapid construction of data centers in the United States is raising concerns about electricity supply shortages, which may impact various industries, particularly aluminum production [4]. Group 1: Electricity Supply and Demand - In 2024, the United States is projected to generate approximately 4.3 trillion kWh of electricity, which is about 42.5% of China's expected generation of 10.1 trillion kWh [5]. - The industrial sector accounts for 26% of the total electricity consumption in the U.S., with total electricity consumption expected to reach 4.1 trillion kWh in 2024 [5]. Group 2: Data Center Electricity Consumption - Data centers in the U.S. are expected to consume around 178 TWh of electricity in 2024, representing about 4% of the total electricity consumption, and this is projected to increase to 606 TWh by 2030, accounting for 12% of total consumption [6]. - The increase in electricity consumption by data centers is expected to account for approximately 41% of the total increase in electricity demand in the U.S. from 2024 to 2030 [10]. Group 3: Aluminum Production and Costs - The U.S. is projected to produce 670,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum in 2024, which is about 0.9% of global production and 1.6% of China's production [7]. - The electricity cost for producing electrolytic aluminum in the U.S. is approximately 1.9 times higher than in China, with U.S. industrial electricity prices averaging 9.06 cents/kWh compared to China's average of 0.386 yuan/kWh [8][9]. - The high electricity costs and supply constraints are likely to accelerate the exit of high-cost aluminum production capacity in the U.S. and delay the construction of new capacity [10].