Core Viewpoint - The AI-driven memory supercycle is real and its strength and duration may exceed market expectations, shifting demand from price-sensitive traditional customers to AI data centers that are less sensitive to pricing [4][5][6] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current memory industry supercycle is structural, with a shift in core demand drivers towards AI data centers and cloud service providers, marking a departure from previous cycles driven by PCs and smartphones [3][4] - Recent channel pricing shows unprecedented strength, with server DRAM prices soaring nearly 70% for Q4 2025, and NAND contract prices increasing by 20-30% [5][10] - The spot market has seen explosive growth, with DDR5 (16Gb) prices rising from $7.50 in September to $20.90, a staggering increase of 336% [11] Group 2: Supply Constraints - NAND supply is tight, with 3D NAND chip prices expected to rise by 65-70% in Q4, and Samsung's production limited due to a transition to 321-layer V8-NAND [12] - HDD order visibility extends to 2027, with delivery times exceeding two years, indicating a significant supply-demand imbalance in the storage market [13] Group 3: Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to "hold" rather than "trade," as timing the market often leads to missed opportunities; the current bull market is fundamentally driven [5][14] - The report emphasizes that the time spent in the market is more crucial than attempting to time market movements, as memory cycles are inherently volatile [15] Group 4: Winners and Losers - Memory manufacturers like SK Hynix and Samsung are positioned as winners due to their pricing power, benefiting from rising prices and significant profit growth [16][17] - Conversely, the PC, non-premium smartphone, and broader consumer electronics supply chains are identified as losers, facing severe profit pressure and challenges in passing on rising memory costs to consumers [19][20]
内存上行周期才刚刚开始？大摩：投资者应持有内存股而非“择时”，警惕“成本急剧上升”的消费电子和PC
美股IPO·2025-11-17 00:55